limelight networks disney
Unfortunately, its subsequent vehicle battery scandal, a string of investor lawsuits, and a weak balance sheet are leading to an equally monumental downfall.

It’s widely known that Disney Streaming Services and CenturyLink have had a great working relationship for a very long time. Limelight's focus on large customers in the media industry seems to be the issue here, although the higher cost of revenue and depreciation (a non-cash item) on newly constructed infrastructure also took a toll in the period. The bitrate for HD on an iPad versus a TV is very different in size so just saying 61% of viewing in HD isn’t detailed enough.

Backing out non-cash items, though, cash-only gross margin was a healthy 46.1% in Q3. Risk is an inevitable part of life. There’s also an odd reference in the report to Akamai’s pricing saying that Akamai is “charging ~$0.006 globally per GB per month to deliver this volume of traffic“, saying that pricing “would represent an over 80% discount to what lower-quality competitors are offering at scale today.” Akamai isn’t at an 80% discount on any of their services and Piper doesn’t define what they mean when they say “lower-quality competitor“? Based on 15M subscribers, with 30% of viewing on mobile, and 60 hours of viewing a month, with 10% of usage being in UHD (all of which are high estimates for viewing and UHD split) the total spend for Disney in 2020, to deliver just the video bits to 15M Disney+ subs, would be about $4M in total. The company also lacks the robust e-commerce presence that has helped other retailers like Walmart or Target resist excess volatility from the pandemic.

So traffic share will shift amongst CDNs based on performance, potentially as often as each day. With a growing number of high-quality online video offerings, they’re spoilt for choice, and it’s up to streaming services to find ways to deliver vast quantities of top-notch video content quickly and efficiently to compete.”, “Our research found that over 70 per cent of global online viewers are now subscribing to one or more SVoD service. With Cronos Group’s retail locations shuttering temporarily and reduced demand for its products due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the company also found itself grappling with stifling impairment charges -- $35 million in the U.S. alone during the second quarter. Management has made it clear that the company isn’t expecting much in terms of near-term future growth. Simply click here to learn how to get your copy of “5 Growth Stocks Under $49” for FREE for a limited time only. The report goes on to say that, “Given typical annual pricing contraction in the space is 20-30%, our base case assumes Akamai would be charging $0.0011 globally on average per GB per month in 2024. So how is the lion’s share not the majority share?

The PiperJaffray report says that Akamai’s management team expects to receive the “lion’s share” of Disney+ traffic, however their report doesn’t quote an Akamai person by name and it contradicts what I’ve been told directly. ALSO READ: These Are the 10 Worst-Performing Stocks in 2020. Some OTT providers have suggested that when a service gets to 20M subscribers, that’s the threshold from a size and scale standpoint of when it makes sense to consider building your own CDN.

Even if you estimate that only 10% of total viewing time per user, per month, is on mobile, that drops the total number of GBs delivered per month to 120GB, per user. What Disney’s DIY deployment will look like from an architecture standpoint is unknown, but come 2024, third-party CDNs will not be delivering the majority of Disney+ traffic. Coty was in a shaky financial situation before COVID-19 hit (it reported its net revenues down by 8% in fiscal 2019), but matters have only worsened since the pandemic began. Piper is using incorrect numbers to make their estimates both on total GB delivered per month, per user, and the cost per GB Disney would pay today, and five years from now. Cruise line stocks have had a particularly brutal year in the face of widespread travel restrictions and extended lockdowns. Nordstrom had just $991 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of the second quarter, compared with its long-term debt of $3.3 billion. With all that said, let’s look at the numbers in the PiperJaffray report and break those down based on the estimates they used.

EBITDA = earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization. In one instance they say, “When Netflix chose Akamai to deliver its streaming traffic in 2010, IHS reported that for the first few months, Akamai would charge Netflix $0.015 per GB per month. Disney could build out a CDN for the delivery of Disney+ content for under $100M in initial CAPEX costs. One of Piper’s arguments in their note against Disney going DIY is the argument that, “Akamai has been transparent that it would take a new “do-it-yourself” (DIY) service at least five years and over $2B in capex to come close to being able to deliver static content,” but they are taking what Akamai has said out of context. During the second quarter of this year, the company experienced a nearly $17 million decline in revenue as the result of ongoing cruise cancellations. Although these stocks will likely recover over time, companies like American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL) are on shaky ground. The raising of $110 million in fresh cash via convertible debt also bodes well for Limelight's chances at further success. What percentage of traffic each CDN will get for Disney+ traffic is unknown, because for Disney, service quality is paramount and they will shape traffic across a multi-CDN strategy based on how CDNs perform, just like they have always done. Certain risky stocks may be best avoided altogether.

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)” Lion’s share means, the largest part of something and majority share means, the greater part, or more than half, of the total. They do say that “HD and UHD generate ~3.6x and ~8.4x more bytes compared to SD”, but they don’t break out what bitrates they are comparing that to. These changes will allow the airline to reset its international network for future growth as demand returns.” As things stand now, future growth may be a long way off yet. Nordstrom posted net losses equivalent to $255 million in the second quarter, while its pre-tax losses came to a staggering $370 million. At no time has Akamai suggested it would take Disney $2B to build out their own CDN. Disney will go DIY with their video delivery, the question is when. The stock is down about 80% year to date. Shares of Canada-based pharmaceutical and marijuana company Tilray (NASDAQ: TLRY) have fallen by more than 60% this year. Akamai is also one of Disney Streaming Services primary CDNs and I expect when Disney+ launches internationally, Disney will use at least four CDNs including CenturyLink, Akamai, Limelight Networks, and Fastly, with the latter two being critical for Disney’s international launch. Nicholas Rossolillo owns shares of Cloudflare, Inc., Limelight Networks, and Walt Disney.

The report says, “we believe in today’s pricing world, Akamai would be charging ~$0.006 globally per GB per month to deliver this volume of traffic.” That number is too high. Although the company reduced its debt load in the final quarter of fiscal 2020, its total net revenue was down by 5%. Note that the $4M per month figure would be just for pure bit delivery and Disney could have some additional charges on top of that for other functionality or services tied to the delivery of video. Another cannabis stock that has had a particularly volatile year, Cronos Group (NASDAQ: CRON) is swimming in a serious financial mire. He initiated coverage on Limelight Networks with a “buy” rating and a $9 price target. In a particularly bleak note for the company’s investors, shares promptly plunged by more than 20% on news of the SEC filing. Given current trends, we estimate rooms could grow by 2 to 3 percent, net, for the full year.”, ALSO READ: Don't Buy a Stock Unless You Can Answer These 3 Questions. Since they won’t have that, I don’t think, by January 2020, their monthly spend would not be $4M a month right off the bat, hence why it’s not $4M x 12 months.


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